ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER WEEK AHEAD
A multi-day severe weather event is looking more and more likely across the Midwest next week. A strong trough is expected to move through with a very strong jet streak rounding the base by mid week. The ridging across the Midwest prior to the trough’s appearance will allow plentiful moisture and instability to build in enhancing the severe weather potential.
The Storm Prediction Center already has two extended severe weather outlooks in place for portions of the Midwest. At this time, the greatest severe potential looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday. The above map shows the risk area on Wednesday.
An enhanced risk area is also outlined on Thursday. Both of these days show the potential for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms. Severe weather is also likely starting as early as Monday. However, the more organized and widespread threat is likely in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.
The above map shows the surface dewpoints valid Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday has two areas of interest – a dryline extending across Kansas and Oklahoma and a warm front extending across Missouri and Illinois.
The warm sector south of the warm front and east of the dryline looks to be very unstable. The CAPE values are expected to be in excess of 3,000 j/kg and is very sufficient for severe thunderstorms.
The pattern will continue into Thursday as the jet streak is expected to fully eject into the Midwest thus increasing the severe weather potential. We’re still several days from the event, therefore timing has the potential to change. There looks to be several days of severe weather, the question is which day will be the big day.
We’ll continue to monitor model trends. Make sure to follow us online on our Facebook and Twitter pages for the latest severe weather information. Midwest Weather Center will likely be in the field next week tracking the forecast severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned…
- Paul
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