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Weather discussion for the first chase setup of Spring 2015!
015 Th
An area of agitated cumulus has appeared on satellite imagery just east of a surface low analyzed just to the southwest of Childress, TX, as skies have cleared south of a stationary front just south of the Red River through the Wichita Falls area. Temperatures south of the front have warmed into the 70s with dewpoints unseasonably high in the lower 60s. Surface-based storms should develop out of this region of TCU in the next few hours, and interact with the backed surface winds of the stationary/warm front across Northwest TX this afternoon.
Here is the satellite image from around 1:30 pm CDT, and this area of TCU has remained steady state if not growing over the last 30 minutes.
With the heating of the day and the dew points in the low 60s, surface-based CAPE values across NW TX east of the triple point have risen between 500-1000 J/kg with minimal cap despite relative modest mid-level lapse rates, according to the 17z RAP run. Based on the RAP hourly forecast the stationary/warm front and any surface-based instability sufficient for SB storms remain just south of the Red River near and S/SW of the Wichita Falls area through afternoon. High-res models are converging on storm initiation over a small area in northwest TX near the triple point just southwest of SDS around 3-4 pm CDT.
Even if surface-based storms are able to develop and become supercellular, they will only have a narrow window of 1-2 hours to produce any tornadoes before being undercut by a storm cold front, presently surging south through the TX Panhandle. Another limiting factor is the relatively weak low-level wind shear, even in the vicinity of the stationary/warm front just south of Red River where surface winds are east-southeasterly. The low-level jet is only forecast to be around 10-15 knots at best. Still though, there is a non-zero chance a brief, weak tornado or two could happen with any isolated supercells near the triple point around Wichita Falls by 4-5 pm CDT.
Deep layer shear is certainly sufficient, with decent 500 mb flow to the east of the large-scale trough over the Southwest U.S. If this system were in April/May with slightly more baroclinicity and a stronger low-level jet stream it could easily be a tornado outbreak in the Southern Plains.. Possibly a sign to come for this spring with El Nino conditions in the Pacific??
Post your thoughts on this first real spring setup of this season!!!
Here is the satellite image from around 1:30 pm CDT, and this area of TCU has remained steady state if not growing over the last 30 minutes.
With the heating of the day and the dew points in the low 60s, surface-based CAPE values across NW TX east of the triple point have risen between 500-1000 J/kg with minimal cap despite relative modest mid-level lapse rates, according to the 17z RAP run. Based on the RAP hourly forecast the stationary/warm front and any surface-based instability sufficient for SB storms remain just south of the Red River near and S/SW of the Wichita Falls area through afternoon. High-res models are converging on storm initiation over a small area in northwest TX near the triple point just southwest of SDS around 3-4 pm CDT.
Even if surface-based storms are able to develop and become supercellular, they will only have a narrow window of 1-2 hours to produce any tornadoes before being undercut by a storm cold front, presently surging south through the TX Panhandle. Another limiting factor is the relatively weak low-level wind shear, even in the vicinity of the stationary/warm front just south of Red River where surface winds are east-southeasterly. The low-level jet is only forecast to be around 10-15 knots at best. Still though, there is a non-zero chance a brief, weak tornado or two could happen with any isolated supercells near the triple point around Wichita Falls by 4-5 pm CDT.
Deep layer shear is certainly sufficient, with decent 500 mb flow to the east of the large-scale trough over the Southwest U.S. If this system were in April/May with slightly more baroclinicity and a stronger low-level jet stream it could easily be a tornado outbreak in the Southern Plains.. Possibly a sign to come for this spring with El Nino conditions in the Pacific??
Post your thoughts on this first real spring setup of this season!!!
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