National FutureCast Model News8Austin
Monday, February 16, 2015
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Thursday, February 12, 2015
It just got interesting.............
It just got interesting
POSTED 2:27 PM, FEBRUARY 12, 2015,
We've known for a while now that there could be a “threat” of some wintry weather early next week, but confidence is increasing that a major winter storm could unfold across the South between Monday and Wednesday.
All of the players are on the field, but their positions matter a lot. A surface high over the northeastern US and a low near the Gulf Coast often signal big snows for this area; however, the uncertainty of the exact track of the low casts a big shadow over any pinpointed expectations. If it’s farther north, we get more rain than anything in the Tennessee Valley. It would be areas nearer Interstate 40 that get a big blast of wintry weather. If it’s farther south, the greater threat could be suppressed closer to Interstate 20. There’s a lot of miles between those two major highways, but our longer-range forecast models see that kind of distance as very, very small (margin-of-error kind of stuff).
In fact, if you look at individual members of an ensemble, the positions of the main players may change by hundreds of miles – and that’s within the same “model world!” These three maps are the ensemble means; you could look at it as the average position of all the members of the GEFS ensemble product. That looks awfully wintry for us if it pans out:
PHOTO GALLERY
Some guidance puts as much as 12 inches of snow over Southern Tennessee by Wednesday morning. An event like that is so rare that it is hard to “forecast.” Forecasts are “best estimates” of the many potential outcomes, and big, record-setting events don’t happen often.
12Z (6 AM) GFS model-derived snowfall at a 10:1 ratio
Things to Watch: We’ll keep close tabs on the trends in the model guidance. If it trends 100 miles north or south, it could greatly change what happens at your house.
If it does pan out, watch the snow accumulation ratio (how much snowfall for an inch of liquid precipitation). It would probably start out around 8:1 (8 inches of snow for every one inch of liquid) and end up around 20:1 when the fresh Arctic air catches the moisture. That could throw totals way off if you just base it on the simple, common 10:1 ratio.
Forecasts like this are never simple, and they change often. Stick with us and we’ll keep a close watch on it for you.
What Do I Really Think? It’s going to be a complicated mess. That’s what I think right now. The scenario we see as of now starts out as some ice and snow on Monday, likely changes to rain for most of North Alabama (stays icy in most of Middle Tennessee) Monday night into Tuesday, then it changes back to some sleet and snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The back-and-forth of the precipitation types make it impossible to “nail” an accumulation amount, but it is not far-fetched at all to expect at least 1-3″ of snow by Wednesday. That could change in a big way (to go higher or go to nothing), but it’s a reasonable expectation given what we know today. Some travel problems are possible, but there is no way to gauge timing and impact yet.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Thursday's Weather Outlook
Santa Rosa, CA 95405
Thursday's Weather Outlook
7:15 PM PST, February 11, 2015
Frigid Arctic air will have residents pulling parkas and winter gloves out Thursday, while plenty of sunshine and unseasonably mild temperatures remain across the rest of the U.S....
The big talk Thursday will be the frigid Arctic air forcing highs across the northeastern corner of the U.S. to plummet. Highs in the single digits to the teens will sink further southward to cover the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes, while pushing cold 20s and 30s as far south as the Tennessee Valley. Along with the freezing temperatures, breezy winds and a few light snow showers will bring another taste of winter, from the Great Lakes to the northern Atlantic Coast, while flurries move in across the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Dakotas overnight Thursday.
Elsewhere, a sprinkling of light rain will be possibly across the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas, while more rain patters over rooftops in western Washington.
The rest of the U.S. can expect to see milder temperatures, with mostly sunny skies shining throughout Thursday. Highs in the 40s and 50s will sweep southeastward from the Northwest down into the Southern Plains and the Southeast, while warmer 60s and 70s will appear across the Coastal West, Central Great Basin, Southwest, northern and central High Plains, the coastal Southeast, the Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula. Hot highs in the lower to mid-80s will be possible across the Southern California and the Desert Southwest.
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Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Do we dare say this term?
Do we dare say this term? *coughs* Well...it appears the Polar Vortex, or at least a "spoke" of the vortex, will make its presence known this weekend here in Ohio! What does this mean? Well by Sunday morning, some of the coldest air of the season so far will push into the Ohio Valley possibly sending temperatures below zero in some places. Wind chill readings could push to near or colder than 20 below zero. If we do happen to get some snow on the ground, this could help push temperatures even colder. Stay tuned for more on this!
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Monday, February 9, 2015
Santa Rosa, California, Weather Forecasts, National Weather Outlook
The second day of the work week will bring gradually improving skies to storm-weary New England while other parts of the Northern Tier deal with snow and ice. Meanwhile, clouds and light rain will stay socked in across the Southeast Atlantic Coast beaches.
National Outlook.
Early-morning snow will taper off in southeastern New England with sunshine returning by the second half of the day. A few rain, snow and ice patches will give way to blue sky in the Mid-Atlantic. Farther to the south, damp and dreary weather is on the weather menu from the Delmarva Peninsula to the Carolina beaches. A downpour or two could push through places like Wilmington and Cape Hatteras, N.C.
The same storm piercing the Northwest with rain will get caught up in the upper-level wind flow and sweep across the northern Rockies into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Light snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain will cause slippery travel along Interstate 94 in the Dakotas before making headway into Minnesota`s Arrowhead and the western Great Lakes after lunch.
Leftover showers will keep windshield wipers going in the Northwest with light snow showers in the northern Rockies today. High pressure will ensure the remainder of the West, Plains, Mississippi and Ohio valleys and interior Mid-Atlantic stay dry.
Northern New England will be the coldest spot today with highs in the single digits and teens, warming into the 20s and 30s in places like Boston and Hartford, Conn. Highs will also reach to around the freezing mark from the northern Plains to northern Mid-Atlantic.
The West, Plains, Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic will reach the 50s, 60s and 70s. Only the highest Mountain West peaks will linger in the 30s.
Santa Rosa, California, Weather Forecasts
TUESDAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog with some mist at times will linger into the morning, especially for the North and East Bay valleys. Highs should be mainly in the mid to upper 60s, except locally cooler inland where the low clouds take longer to disperse.
THE WEEK AHEAD: High pressure strengthens later in the week which will boost temps closer to near record highs approaching the weekend. Temps near the bay and coastline should climb into the mid to upper 60s with low to mid 70s possible around the valleys by Friday.
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